There are really only three things you need to know about Ebola. Each of them is a serious problem, of a distinct type. But the only solution to all three issues is to end the epidemic in West Africa as soon as possible.
1. Humanitarian Crisis in West Africa
In case you’ve been distracted by the news from Dallas, the real issue is in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, where the epidemic is continuing to grow exponentially. In case you aren’t aware how bad it is my last blog post will better inform you. These countries urgently need our help to moderate and eventually end this terrible situation.
2. Risk of Spread to Other Poor Countries
There will continue to be isolated cases of Ebola in the Western world: A traveler will occasionally fall ill, as in Dallas. A healthcare worker will occasionally be infected, as in Spain. Each patient may possibly infect a few more people, but with care and attention any little outbreak should be readily brought under control. Hard though it is to believe, Ebola really isn’t very contagious, relative to common diseases like measles and the flu. The total number of people affected in developed countries will probably be on the order of how many people are struck by lightning. Accidents, suicides, and many other diseases present far greater risks in our world.
In a poor country, however, with weak healthcare infrastructure, and crowded slums, Ebola might gain a foothold. It is hard to imagine that the world would ever again allow an epidemic to get as far out of hand as the one in West Africa, but it’s possible. And that has the potential to multiply the disruption, sickness and death of the current epidemic many fold.
3. Risk of Mutation
The last worry is the possibility that Ebola could mutate to become more infectious. The Ebola Reston strain seemed to pass between monkeys through the air, so this anxiety isn’t entirely fanciful. [CNN 10/6/14] The best way to prevent such a mutation is to stop the cycle of human-to-human infection in West Africa. The more rolls of the dice Ebola gets the greater the risk that a mutation will increase its ability to infect. Which could obviously be a big problem.
Conclusion: We Must Stop the Epidemic
The brouhaha about Dallas, and most recently about the Spanish nurse’s puppy, is predictable, but we need to return our attention to the main point. For all three of the reasons mentioned above job #1 is ending the epidemic in West Africa. Cutting off travel and the like may seem to make us safer, but in fact they make us less safe, by exacerbating all three of these primary issues. We’ve got to stop the epidemic!
(I’ve oversimplified a bit: If you’re a healthcare worker you need to know more, precisely in order to avoid as many as possible of the blunders which have characterized the responses in Dallas and in Spain. And if you’re in West Africa of course you need to think about a lot of additional issues.)